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Why the Segwit2X hardfork will fail

Why the Segwit2X hardfork will fail
"Its time-frame is extremely absurd. Actually, absurd doesn't do it justice which is why between that and number #1 several engineers have been just responding "LOL" to the proposal. They don't set any time for design review and analysis, they don't set any time for writing a specification (they don't have one and don't appear to intend to have one), they set aside two weeks for testing-- which is less time than even minor releases of Bitcoin get (and need!) even when they were comprised of small fixes which had mostly existed for months already. They don't allot any time for alternative implementations to implement it (which is especially bad because they can provide useful design feedback). They don't set aside time for meaningful deployment by users (some of whom may have their own lengthy patching and qualification process). They don't seem to have any concern about how forced upgrades erode decentralization and privileged hosted wallets/apis/pools over running your own infrastructure. Basically every stage of the consensus rule change pipeline should take (and always has taken) more time they allotted for everything. BU+Classic BIP109 ran on testnet for months before their interoperability failure was revealed and they forked apart from each other and abandon BIP109."
Now, let's assume for a moment that 80% of the hash power runs this fork as well as some of the economic ecosystem that signed the New York agreement like Abra, Bitpay, Coinbase, Blockchain, Purse, Shapeshift, Xapo, etc. What would happen? First, a large number of users and other parts of the ecosystem might not support it. There are many economic parties that were not part of the agreement, such as wallets like Trezor, MyCellium, Armory, Bitcoin Wallet (Android), Green Address, Breadwallet, Electrum, etc. There were a lot of exchanges that weren't part of the agreement, like Kraken, Poloniex, Bitstamp, Gemini, Bithumb, Bitfinex.
What if several of those mentioned major economic players decide not to support Segwit2X and don't run the Segwit2X/btc1/NY client? I believe what would happen in that scenario is the following:
An important point to keep in mind is that nearly every core developer has at one point in time supported the idea of a hard fork and even larger blocks. But what they haven't supported is doing it without a high degree of consensus on forking safely, without the best research, lots of testing, and a very long time horizon.
If we truly want to hard fork Bitcoin, we need to do it wisely, following the very challenging but necessary process for making such critical consensus changes. And it needs to be done with an open community process, not with a New York style agreement that leaves out major parts of the ecosystem. Bitcoin core is not the enemy of hardforks, or even block size increases. But there has to be very good justification for making these changes, a high degree of consensus and buy-in from the whole ecosystem, lots of research, good code, lots of testing, and a compelling need. It's a high bar, but not impossible. While there exists methods of getting more scale with safer methods (Schnorr signatures, bi-directional payment channels, transaction cut-through, extension blocks, lightning, flex caps, drivechains, etc.) hard forks seem less compelling for the moment.
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drbree3 - YouTube Bitcoin Armory - Funding a Lockbox BITCOIN WONT DIE!!! How To Send And Receive Bitcoin With Coinbase - YouTube BITCOIN ROARING 2020?! China, Mining, Open Source - Programmer explains

I'm not that familiar with running bitcoin core on Windows, but this fixes the issue on Linux. It isn't the quickest or best solution, but if manually transferring wallet.dat isn't an option (and you can't dump the private key as another person suggested because bitcoind won't run) this may work for you: I stored the small amount of bitcoin in an Armory wallet and made an offline backup and saved the password for it. Fast forward to this week when I decided to check up on my old wallet and see just how much I had saved in it. I go to re download the block chain using bitcoin core (which takes a day and a half) and then start up Armory. I's now been two and a half days of Armory "Parsing Tx ... I just installed Armory 0.91.2-beta and my computer's nice and online. Its downloading the blockchain right now in fact. But when I click on "send bitcoins" it tells me that Armory is in offline mode. It doesn't tell me anything about ho... A lot of people want to use Armory as their bitcoin client, which really makes the idea of using a light bitcoin client impossible, unfortunately. I submitted a request to etotheipi to add in an option to Armory to load the blockchain from a server, and he said it's something he might do in the future, but it's pretty low on his list of priorities. Digital money that’s instant, private, and free from bank fees. Download our official wallet app and start using Bitcoin today. Read news, start mining, and buy BTC or BCH.

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